I don’t love season win totals because I don’t exactly enjoy waiting four months for a payout. Having said that, there are always a few opportunities that make sense…
ECU – Over 4.5 (-215)
They have four games they should win even if their entire team plays with a head-pounding hangover (WEBB, W&M, @ODU and @UCONN). New head coach Mike Houston should easily be able to find that 5th (or even become bowl eligible with a 6th) in winnable games at Navy, vs. Temple and vs. Tulsa.
Appalachian State – Over 9 (-150)
Even with a coaching change and adding new head coach Eliah Drinkwitz from NCST, App State is the cream of the Sun Belt crop. With the win total set at 9, this is one where I see it much more likely that they win 10+ than only 8 or fewer. App State – as has become customary – could make some noise nationally. Their two toughest tests are at UNC and at South Carolina, but an upset in either (or both) wouldn’t surprise me. In conference, at Troy and at ULL could be interesting but App State will likely be favored in both even playing on the road.
Ohio State – Over 10 (-120)
Ohio State – with new head coach Ryan Day replacing Urban Meyer – is simply more talented than the majority of their opponents. Tell me the three games they’re going to lose which would result in a 9-3 record… you can’t! At Michigan? Maybe but that hasn’t panned out for Harbaugh. Home against Penn State? Doubtful. Plus another loss? Feels like a solid pick with the downside being a push.
Clemson – Over 11.5 (-115)
No new head coach here… They’re not losing to any ACC team and they’re not losing out of conference. Texas A&M is their toughest test on paper, but they learned their lesson last season. 12-0.