Conference Championship Weekend

LIKE IT!

Appalachian State (-6.5) vs. Louisiana – This is a true home game for App State. They won by 10 at Louisiana earlier this season in a hard-fought and low scoring game. I would not be surprised if this were close early, but the Mountaineers will pull away to win by more than a TD.

Florida Atlantic (-7) vs. UAB – This is also a home game for the FAU Owls (aka “Fighting Lane Kiffins” at least for a few more days). The Owls only three losses this season were to Ohio State (by only 24), UCF and Marshall… all respectable. None of their nine wins have been by less than 10. I’m seeing -7.5 currently so I’d recommend buying the half point to -7.

Ohio State (-16.5) vs. Wisconsin – The Buckeyes have been solid all season. This game is on turf in Indianapolis and the Badgers will not be able to keep up with Ohio State’s speed. Ohio State is also motivated to make a statement and keep the #1 seed so they won’t take their foot off the gas.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

Boise State (-7) & Ohio State (-10) – Boise State gets Hawaii at home on the Smurf Turf and Ohio State hasn’t won by less than 10 all season. This requires a 6.5 point tease.

CFB – Week 14

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Memphis (-11) vs. Cincinnati – Both teams are 10-1 but tending in opposite directions. Cincinnati has had narrow victories in three of their past four games against inferior opponents. Memphis has looked much more impressive so I’m taking the home team.

Army (+3) at Hawaii – Army is difficult to prepare for and playing much better compared to earlier this season. Hawaii is looking ahead to their conference championship game and wants nothing to do with the Army offense.

LIKE IT!

Ole Miss (+1.5) at Mississippi State – In a Thanksgiving Egg Bowl, Ole Miss has everything to play for… spoiling the Mississippi State season. Give me the Rebels.

Buffalo (-28) vs. Bowling Green – Does Bowling Green stay within 28 points against anyone? Certainly not here as they’re already looking forward to the off season.

Penn State (-40) vs. Rutgers – See above comments from Bowling Green and add in the fact that Penn State has no reservations on running up the score.

Minnesota (+3) vs. Wisconsin – Minnesota has been solid all season long and I do not expect them to drop the ball here with a trip to the conference championship game on the line.

Notre Dame (-16.5) at Stanford – Notre Dame has looked strong since the Virginia game and should not have any issues winning by three touchdowns.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

Ole Miss (+7.5) & Notre Dame (-10.5) – I expect the Ole Miss game to be within a score regardless of the outcome. Conversely, I cannot picture the Irish game coming down to the wire.

CFB – Week 13

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Ohio State (-18.5) vs. Penn State – Have you watched an Ohio State game this season? They can name their number for margin of victory and that number is never less than three touchdowns.

Minnesota (-14) at Northwestern – I feel a bit cheated by Minnesota’s missed extra point last week but still like both sides of this. Minnesota is a strong team and I don’t pass up opportunities to fade Northwestern.

LIKE IT!

Tulane (+6) vs. UCF – Tulane has fared well at home this season and has the ability to score a lot of points. UCF has been trending in the opposite direction and may lose this one outright.

Air Force (-22.5) at New Mexico – Air Force will put up some points especially against a New Mexico team on a seven (soon to be eight) game skid.

San Jose State (-7) at UNLV – San Jose State has had three consecutive well-fought games with the last two being narrow losses to Hawaii and Boise State. They would earn bowl eligibility with two wins to close out the season and UNLV will not get in their way this week.

Temple (+10.5) at Cincinnati – If you look at Cincinnati in November, they barely escaped both USF and ECU by three points each. This game feels like it will follow a similar script.

Wake Forest (-7) vs. Duke – Wake Forest can and will score points (unless they’re playing Clemson). Duke is not Clemson. Duke has averaged just 11 points per game in their last four outings. Even if they double that total, Wake will cover the 7 points.

Hawaii (-3) vs. San Diego State – Games in Hawaii this season have all surpassed 50 total points (a couple over 80!) whereas San Diego State tends to be lower scoring. I’m taking the Rainbow Warriors here because I do not believe the Aztecs will keep pace.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

Ohio State (-12.5) & Air Force (-16.5) – I expect both of these teams to put up a lot of points. Tease both spreads across a couple key numbers and enjoy.

CFB – Week 12

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Alabama (-17.5) at Mississippi State – This one is simple… Alabama still has a shot at the playoffs and they know it. Mississippi State is a below average SEC team.

Louisville (-4) at NC State – I’ve been high on Louisville all season. Coach Satterfield will have his team ready to come back into North Carolina and take care of the Wolfpack .

LIKE IT!

Indiana (+15) at Penn State – Indiana is trending upward. Penn State will struggle to recover from their playoff eliminating loss to Minnesota last week.

Missouri (+7) vs. Florida – I really like the home field edge for the Tigers here who haven’t played a home game since early October.

Michigan (-13.5) vs. Michigan State – Michigan State is in a downward spiral and Michigan loves to kick the Spartans when their down.

Minnesota (+3.5) at Iowa – Minnesota is slighted. They’re undefeated. They just beat Penn State and they’re still an underdog. Take the points!

Washington State (-10.5) vs. Stanford – Both teams are technically playing for bowl eligibility but Stanford has not looked impressive recently and is dealing with some defensive injuries while playing on the road.

Baylor (+10.5) vs. Oklahoma – See Minnesota above… Undefeated and a significant underdog. At a minimum they’ll keep it close.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

Minnesota (+10) & Baylor (+17) – Teasing the two undefeated teams 6.5 points to some key numbers.

CFB – Week 11

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Baylor (-2.5) at TCU – Baylor escaped a scare last week. Chalk that up as an anomaly and expect them to have a strong showing this week!

LIKE IT!

South Florida (+1.5) vs. Temple – These two teams are trending in completely opposite directions. I see no reason that changes on Thursday night. I’m taking USF.

Ole Miss (-28) vs. New Mexico State – Call it an SEC bias. Call it fading an 0-8 team. I don’t care when it translates to a win.

BYU (-17) vs. Liberty – BYU has had two consecutive strong performances. Liberty has played an extremely weak schedule. I like the Cougars to dominate here.

Clemson at NC State (Over 53.5) – Clemson will be full throttle in Raleigh this weekend eager to jump into next week’s top 4 playoff rankings. They may be able to cover the 53.5 on their own.

Boise State (-13.5) vs. Wyoming – Wyoming lost their starting QB. Boise will continue their strong season with a convincing win.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

Illinois (+21) & Louisville (+13) – I’m not sure if there will be 21 total points scored in the Illinois / Michigan State game and Miami may let down enough this week after the big rivalry win last week to lose outright to Louisville.

CFB – Week 10

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Indiana (-11) vs. Northwestern – These two teams are on opposite trajectories. Indiana has and continues to exceed expectations this season while Northwestern is completely inept on offense averaging just over a touchdown through the past five games. Indiana will get up and never look back.

LIKE IT!

Kansas State (-6) at Kansas – I am impressed with Kansas… big win last week versus Texas Tech and arguably should have won the week before against Texas. Those efforts have translated to a discount on the line this week. Lay the six points.

Middle Tennessee State (-3) at Charlotte – Charlotte has been good to me this season, especially in their narrow victory last week against North Texas. The Blue Raiders (aka “Majestic Blue Dragons”) will come to play this week. I’m surprised this line is only three points.

Army (+16) at Air Force – Army is undoubtedly having a down year this season, but the idea of any team laying three scores against this ball control offense is ridiculous. Just ask Michigan. None of Army’s five losses have been by double digits.

Memphis (-6) vs. SMU – I’d throw SMU into the overachieving category. While that’s evident by the 6-point spread, Memphis has everything to play for and a home crowd in their corner.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

Baylor (-12.5) & Washington (+10) – Baylor hosts West Virginia and WVU has not impressed during the month of October. This Halloween game will be more of the same. The UW Huskies may win outright, but feel comfortable teasing this to double digits.

CFB – Week 9

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Alabama vs. Arkansas (Under 56) – Tua is hurt. Arkansas will not be able to score. Alabama wants to get to their bye week as quickly as possible.

LIKE IT!

Ohio State (-14) vs. Wisconsin – This is less about how poorly Wisconsin looked last week and more about how strong the Buckeyes look. Buy the half a point to be safe. Ohio State won’t slip up at home.

Charlotte (+4) vs. North Texas – I was burned by Charlotte a couple weeks ago at FIU. They’ll redeem themselves this weekend at home.

Arkansas State (-11.5) vs. Texas State – I was impressed with Arkansas State last week against the Ragin’ Cajuns. Conversely, Texas State was less than impressive in their last outing versus ULM. Both teams are coming off of plenty of rest.

Air Force vs. Utah State (Over 58) – Utah State runs a fast paced offense and Air Force has shown a high level of offensive efficiency. That will translate to scoring early and often for this night game in Colorado.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

USC (-7) & Penn State (-0.5) – Let’s ride a hot hand with USC aiding the tease efforts last week against a weak Colorado offense. Michigan State has trap written all over it, but Penn State won’t fall for it in the loss column at least.

CFB – Week 8

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Virginia (-3) vs. Duke – Virginia is arguably the second best team in the ACC after Clemson. They’ll prove that this weekend in a must-win conference game.

Oklahoma State (-3.5) vs. Baylor – This is the whole ‘ranked team as an underdog versus an unranked team typically loses. I’ll side with Mike Gundy.

LIKE IT!

Florida (-5) at South Carolina – South Carolina is coming off of a huge win over Georgia last week and Florida has had two consecutive tough games including their loss last week in Baton Rouge. Florida is the better team here.

Clemson at Louisville (Over 60.5) – Clemson put up 77 on Louisville last season. Louisville is a MUCH better team with Satterfield which I believe will actually help the over as they flirt with 20 points.

NC State (-3) at Boston College – Boston College lost their QB for the season against Louisville. NCST will be able to put up enough points to distance themselves from BC.

Central Michigan (-10.5) at Bowling Green – Central Michigan produced as a Love It! last week. They should continue that trend at Bowling Green.

Washington (+3) vs. Oregon – Washington is flying under the radar with two losses this season. They’re underrated and will give Oregon all they can handle.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

Ohio State (-21) & USC (-3) – Don’t mess with a good thing in OSU teases, this one on Friday night! Let’s add in the Trojans coming off a hard-fought loss at ND who will find much more success against Arizona.

CFB – Week 7

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Eastern Michigan (-1) vs. Ball State – Eastern Michigan has beaten Ball State by a combined 98-34 over the past two seasons. I’ll lay one point at home.

Ole Miss (+12.5) at Missouri – The Rebels have played a tougher schedule this season (Alabama, Cal…) and it will pay off here. I’ll take the points.

LIKE IT!

Oregon vs. Colorado (Over 58.5) – Colorado QB Montez has played in Eugene before in 2016 and threw 3 TDs. If Colorado is able to replicate that production, this game may approach 70 points.

Maryland (-3) at Purdue – In a battle of the backup QBs, Maryland will take care of business. Take that Penn State game out of the equation and Maryland looks like a solid top 25 football team.

Central Michigan (-10) vs. New Mexico State – I always look for opportunities to fade bad teams. CMU should win easily here. They may even try to get Antonio Brown some playing time with a comfortable lead!

North Texas (+3) at Southern Mississippi – The Mean Green laid an egg last week against Houston. That give you value this week. North Texas has had the Golden Eagles’ number and that won’t change this weekend.

Army (-4.5) at Western Kentucky – Western Kentucky is not a good football team. Army has underwhelmed this season compared to last, but they’ll break away in this one.

Charlotte (+5) at Florida International – My opinion of Charlotte changed when they played with App State. Charlotte will keep this close and may even win outright.

TEASE OF THE WEEK!

Texas (+17) & Iowa (+10) – The Red River Rivalry is exactly that… a rivalry. This should be a close game. With Iowa, I expect a strong bounce back performance and potentially a win.

CFB – Week 6

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Toledo (-1.5) vs. Western Michigan – Toledo has taken care of business the past three weeks and Saturday will be no different. Rockets will cover -1.5.

Tulsa (+13) at SMU – Tulsa had a strong showing against Oklahoma State two weeks ago. With a narrow win last week, I sense they were looking ahead to this exact game. Tulsa will be ready and SMU feels a bit overrated with 5 consecutive wins ATS.

LIKE IT!

Maryland at Rutgers (Over 56.5) – There’s a bit of volatility in this game, but I think Maryland may cover alone. I like my chances with Rutgers pitching in a few points.

Texas (-11) at West Virginia – WVU does not look very strong this year. They only beat Kansas by 5 last week and seem to be getting quite a bit of credit from their win vs. NCST the week prior. I know it’s a road game, but I still like Texas.

Memphis (-15) at ULM – ULM will be outmatched here. I’d probably take this at -21.

Northwestern (+7.5) at Nebraska – Northwestern seems to be rounding into form with a respectable showing against Wisconsin (especially when compared to Michigan). I’ll take the touchdown head start on Saturday.

North Carolina (-10.5) at Georgia Tech – There’s a risk of a bit of a letdown after the narrow defeat to Clemson last week. They may only win by 17 instead of 30.

Liberty (-4.5) at New Mexico State – Give me the Flames here to keep NMSU winless!

TEASE OF THE WEEK

Maryland (-6) & Georgia (-18.5) – Maryland is playing Rutgers. Enough said there… Georgia is one of the best teams in the country coming off of a bye week. They’ll win by 3 TDs or more.